Grayscale flags a Bitcoin durable bottom; targets $79.3K–$85K

Bitcoin hit $78.4K on Binance, up ~30% from the February $60K low, renewing debate on whether a bull cycle is starting. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said BTC may have printed a “durable market bottom” after holding above $74K (near the realized price of buyers from three months ago). If Bitcoin keeps rallying, more buyers move into profit and selling pressure could ease—an early bull-market phase sign. In the short term, a squeeze setup is helping Bitcoin. Funding rates stayed surprisingly negative despite the rally, implying leveraged shorts are positioned for potential further upside. The next “magnetic” short-seller liquidity pools were cited around $79.3K and $85K. However, Real Vision analyst James Coutts offered a caution: there could be another drawdown before a true cycle low. He pointed to a market-breadth measure (200+ crypto assets) where 79% of the top 200 are at 1-year lows—historically a “flush-like” pattern that has preceded another selloff in prior cycles. For traders, this frames the near-term as possible upside continuation for Bitcoin, but with meaningful risk of a final leg down before trend confirmation.
Bullish
偏看涨的核心在于:Grayscale认为Bitcoin已经形成“可持续市场底部”,并且在链上/买方成本附近企稳;同时资金费率仍偏负,说明杠杆空头在反弹中并未完成出清,短期更容易触发进一步的空头回补,从而把价格推向文中提到的79.3K与85K流动性聚集区。 但判断并非无条件乐观。历史上“市场广度处于极端低位”的情形,往往对应最后一轮“冲刷”之前的阶段。文章中James Coutts指出,若类似2022年的路径出现,Bitcoin可能先再回撤一次,随后才进入更确定的趋势上行。 交易层面:短线可关注Bitcoin是否能持续站稳74K上方并突破79.3K;若出现快速走弱并伴随广度指标继续恶化,则需要警惕“最终回撤”对多头的清洗。中长期上,只要卖压持续缓解、买家盈利比例上升,Grayscale的底部叙事更可能巩固;反之,一旦跌破关键实现成本区间,市场可能延长底部震荡或等待下一次触底验证。