Grayscale: Bitcoin to Hit New ATH in H1 2026 as Institutional Inflows Rise
Grayscale forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a new all‑time high in the first half of 2026 as the market shifts into an “institutional era.” The firm cites two main structural drivers: rising institutional adoption that converts Bitcoin from an experimental asset into a portfolio allocation, and macroeconomic pressure (sovereign debt, currency dilution and inflation risks) that increases demand for scarce digital stores of value. Grayscale also highlights improving regulatory clarity and broader market access—including prior approvals for spot BTC and ETH ETPs and expected bipartisan U.S. crypto legislation in 2026—as catalysts that could unlock further institutional flows. The report notes the mining of Bitcoin’s 20 millionth coin is expected in March 2026, and that U.S. advised wealth has under 0.5% allocated to crypto, implying substantial allocation runway. Since the launch of U.S. spot BTC ETPs in January 2024, global crypto ETPs have seen roughly $87 billion in net inflows—evidence, Grayscale says, that measured institutional demand may replace the classic halving‑driven four‑year cycle and produce steadier, less volatile markets. For traders, the thesis implies a structural reduction in tail volatility but continued upside pressure on BTC from constrained supply and incremental institutional buying; catalysts to watch include regulatory milestones, ETP flows, and on‑chain supply metrics.
Bullish
The combined coverage points to a bullish outlook for BTC. Key drivers—rising institutional allocations, improving regulatory clarity, and macro demand for scarce assets—directly increase net demand against a near‑fixed supply. Evidence cited includes roughly $87bn in net inflows into global crypto ETPs since January 2024 and very low institutional crypto allocations in U.S. advised wealth (<0.5%), implying substantial upside if allocations rise. The expected mining of the 20 millionth BTC and slower issuance dynamics further tighten supply. These factors support sustained buying pressure and a higher path for price discovery, reducing reliance on retail‑led halving spikes and suggesting lower extreme volatility. Short term, BTC could see positive price reactions to favorable regulatory news or large ETP inflows; conversely, weak macro data, abrupt liquidity shifts, or regulatory setbacks could cause pullbacks. Longer term, a steady institutional bid would be structurally bullish, compressing drawdowns and lifting baseline valuation as allocations scale.