Grayscale: Quantum Risk High-Interest but Unlikely to Weigh on Bitcoin Prices in 2026
Grayscale’s 2026 Digital Asset Outlook places quantum computing in a "high attention, low near-term impact" category for Bitcoin. The firm judges a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin’s public-key cryptography as unlikely before around 2030, so it expects 2026 to see heightened research, preparedness and contingency planning rather than immediate market repricing. Grayscale notes layered defenses — progress toward post-quantum cryptography standards, custodial contingency plans and coordinated governance — reduce short-term vulnerability. The report argues that 2026 price drivers will remain institutional: macro demand for alternative stores of value, clearer regulation, spot ETP adoption and continued Bitcoin absorption into mainstream portfolios. It also highlights a verifiable supply milestone (the ~20 millionth bitcoin expected in March 2026) as a predictable issuance factor supporting confidence. Traders should monitor quantum developments but focus nearer-term on macro liquidity, on-chain activity and institutional flows when sizing positions.
Neutral
The report frames quantum computing as a legitimate long-term security risk but unlikely to materially affect Bitcoin prices in 2026, which points to a neutral near-term price impact. Short-term market drivers identified — macro liquidity, institutional demand, regulatory clarity, spot ETP uptake and on-chain activity — are bullish structural forces but are independent of quantum risk. The verified supply milestone (≈20M BTC) reduces issuance uncertainty and supports confidence. Traders are therefore unlikely to see immediate volatility solely from quantum headlines; instead, any price moves will more likely follow macro and institutional flow signals. Over the longer term, credible advances toward a quantum-capable computer would be bearish for Bitcoin’s current cryptographic model unless mitigated by coordinated upgrades to post-quantum signatures. For position management: treat quantum news as a monitoring item (informational risk) rather than a trigger for large directional trades in 2026, but maintain contingency planning and attention to on-chain and institutional indicators that drive near-term price action.