GSR Study Finds Most Token Listings Fall Below Launch Prices
GSR analysed more than 2,300 token listings on major exchanges since 2013 and found that the median token fell below its launch price within three days and declined 50% within 90 days. The study highlights persistent risks in token listings and weak post-listing performance. Tokens launched with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $1 billion recorded a median one-year return of -81%. Tokens with an initial circulating supply below 20% fell by about 75% after one year, compared with a roughly 45% decline for tokens with 30% to 50% in circulation. The findings suggest that high-FDV, low-float token listings face stronger long-term selling pressure. Traders may need to examine valuation, unlock schedules, circulating supply and market-making conditions rather than treat an exchange listing as a bullish signal.
Bearish
The report is bearish for newly listed tokens because it documents broad and persistent underperformance rather than an isolated project failure. A median decline below the launch price within three days indicates that initial listing enthusiasm is often outweighed by early profit-taking, weak demand or aggressive market-making valuations. The 50% median decline within 90 days points to sustained selling pressure after the initial listing period.
The strongest risk factors are high FDV and low circulating supply. A high FDV can leave limited room for additional valuation expansion, while a low float can create an artificially tight early market followed by sharp selling when locked tokens are released. The one-year median losses of 81% for tokens with FDV above $1 billion and about 75% for tokens with less than 20% initial circulation are particularly negative signals for traders assessing new listings.
In the short term, the findings could make traders more cautious around token-generation events, exchange listings and promotional rallies. Newly listed assets may face higher volatility, faster reversals and increased short-selling interest. In the long term, the data may encourage greater focus on sustainable token economics, realistic valuations and transparent unlock schedules. However, the study reports median outcomes rather than the performance of every token, so strong projects with genuine adoption, adequate liquidity and disciplined issuance can still outperform. The research is therefore a risk warning, not proof that every new listing will decline.