Hashbands ’Buy’ Signal Near $90K as Miner Sales Rise — Will BTC Rebound?
Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin hashbands indicator — a historically reliable on-chain metric for miner behavior and long-term bottoms — has issued its fifth "buy" signal of 2025 near the $90,000 level. The indicator shows miners under capital pressure: the 30-day moving average of hash rate has dropped below the 60-day MA, a pattern associated with miner capitulation and discounted buying opportunities. CryptoQuant notes miners have been selling steadily since early October, reducing known miner-wallet holdings by roughly 5,000 BTC to about 1.8 million BTC. Price action: BTC has stalled at the year-open resistance near $93,300, coinciding with the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, while finding support in a $89,000–$90,500 demand zone backed by 50- and 100-period SMAs. Analysts say a clear break above ~$92,000 and the 200-period SMA is needed to resume a sustained move toward $100,000; failure could see bears test sub-$90,000 support and potentially extend declines. Key takeaways for traders: (1) Hashbands’ buy signal suggests a long-term accumulation opportunity but does not guarantee immediate upside — miner-driven selling can keep short-term pressure; (2) monitor miner reserve flows and the 4-hour 200 SMA / $92k–93k resistance for breakout confirmation; (3) a rejection below $90k raises risk of deeper pullbacks. This is not investment advice.
Neutral
The news combines a historically bullish long-term signal (hashbands ’buy’ indication at ~$90k) with current bearish pressure from miner selling. Hashbands historically mark strong accumulation opportunities, which is bullish for longer-term holders and accumulation strategies. However, the immediate market impact is muted/ambiguous: miners reducing reserves since October and the 30-day MA hash rate crossing below the 60-day MA signal continued short-term selling pressure and potential further downside. Price is boxed between a support demand zone (~$89k–$90.5k) and resistance at the 4-hour 200 SMA / ~$92k–$93k. For traders: short-term bias remains mixed — risk of a pullback if price fails to clear the $92k–$93k resistance, but a confirmed break above the 200 SMA could trigger a bullish move toward $100k. This duality — long-term accumulation signal vs. short-term miner-driven selling — supports a neutral categorization. Historical parallels: past miner capitulation phases (e.g., previous hashbands buy signals) preceded durable accumulation periods but often followed short-term volatility as miners sold to cover costs. Practical implications: use on-chain miner flow metrics and the 4-hour 200 SMA as confirmation; consider position sizing and stop placement to manage risk around the $90k support and $92k resistance levels.