Hawkish Fed Rate Cut Spurs 10-Year Yield Surge, Crypto Stalls
On September 17, the Federal Reserve delivered a market-anticipated Fed rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%. However, Fed Chair Powell’s cautious tone and a split dot-plot signaled a ‘hawkish rate cut’ environment. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped, steepening the curve and underscoring persistent inflation concerns as headwinds for risk assets.
US equities hit fresh highs, but crypto markets showed mixed momentum. Bitcoin (BTC) failed to clear key mid-range levels and stalled at its 4-hour EMA clusters, hinting at a deeper retest toward range lows. Ethereum (ETH) also remained indecisive, unable to breach its weekly open. Altcoins saw compression breakouts near monthly opens, yet TOTAL3 and ‘Others’ stalled below prior highs.
Trading plans now focus on spot-based Fed rate cut scenarios: breakout entries on sustained highs and retest buys into mapped demand zones supported by rising EMAs. Traders should monitor the 10-year Treasury yield as a macro risk gauge. Strict position sizing and no leverage remain crucial ahead of further policy decisions. A sustained BTC reclaim above the mid-range with momentum could unlock broader beta, while deeper retests may present asymmetrical entry opportunities.
Neutral
The hawkish Fed rate cut and the surge in 10-year Treasury yields introduce headwinds for risk assets, keeping crypto prices under short-term pressure. Bitcoin’s failure to break mid-range levels and Ethereum’s indecision reinforce a neutral stance. In the long term, a sustained reclaim of key levels—especially BTC above its EMA clusters—could trigger a broader rally. However, until clear momentum emerges, traders must remain cautious, manage position sizes, and avoid leverage. The mixed performance across altcoins and stalled breakouts further supports a neutral outlook, as the market awaits clearer monetary policy signals.