Arthur Hayes: HYPE Could Reach $150 by August as Hyperliquid Grabs Derivatives Volume

BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes projects Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE could reach about $150 by August if the DEX continues capturing derivatives volume from centralized venues and expands macro‑linked perpetual markets. Hayes’ scenario assumes Hyperliquid’s 30‑day annualized revenue run rate rises from $843 million in March to $1.40 billion by August — an outcome he estimates would require the platform to gain roughly an additional 3.96% market share of derivatives volume (it reportedly held ~6% in March). Hyperliquid allocates ~97% of revenue to open‑market HYPE buybacks, a mechanism that reduces circulating supply and can amplify price moves as trading volume grows. Recent geopolitical tensions (US–Iran) helped push tokenized oil (CL‑USDC) to the platform’s top pair with roughly $1.29 billion 24‑hour volume, surpassing ETH‑USDC and boosting protocol revenue. Hayes also highlights HIP‑3, Hyperliquid’s permissionless market‑listing mechanism tied to staking HYPE, which currently contributes near 10% of revenue and could materially raise revenue if more macro assets (oil, gold, silver, major US indices) are added. Technically, HYPE shows a cup‑and‑handle pattern with a neckline around $35.5; a decisive breakout could target ~ $50 in the near term, while the fivefold move to ~$150 depends on the larger revenue and market‑share gains described. The reports note past bearish token unlocks and that Hayes’ bullish calls have sometimes failed. This is analysis, not investment advice.