Arthur Hayes: HYPE fit reach $150 by August as Hyperliquid dey grab derivatives volume
BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes dey project say Hyperliquid native token HYPE fit reach about $150 by August if DEX continue to capture derivatives volume from centralized venues and expand macro‑linked perpetual markets. Hayes scenario suppose Hyperliquid 30‑day annualized revenue run rate go rise from $843 million for March to $1.40 billion by August — outcome wey e estimate say e go need make platform gain about additional 3.96% market share of derivatives volume (dem reportedly hold ~6% for March). Hyperliquid dey allocate ~97% of revenue to open‑market HYPE buybacks, mechanism wey dey reduce circulating supply and fit amplify price moves as trading volume grow. Recent geopolitical tensions (US–Iran) help push tokenized oil (CL‑USDC) to platform top pair with about $1.29 billion 24‑hour volume, pass ETH‑USDC and boost protocol revenue. Hayes also highlight HIP‑3, Hyperliquid permissionless market‑listing mechanism tied to staking HYPE, wey currently contribute near 10% of revenue and fit materially raise revenue if more macro assets (oil, gold, silver, major US indices) add. Technically, HYPE show cup‑and‑handle pattern with neckline around $35.5; decisive breakout fit target ~ $50 short term, while fivefold move to ~$150 depend on the bigger revenue and market‑share gains wey dem describe. Reports note past bearish token unlocks and say Hayes bullish calls sometimes don fail. This na analysis, no be investment advice.
Bullish
Di news dey overall bullish for HYPE because e join clear, mechanical way wey go support price with higher trading volumes: Hyperliquid dey channel big part of revenue into open‑market buybacks (≈97%), so when derivatives volume rise e dey reduce circulating supply directly and fit boost price appreciation. Short‑term bullish triggers na heavy trading for macro pairs (tokenized oil) wey geopolitics dey drive and one technical cup‑and‑handle setup get neckline near $35.5 — breakout toward ≈$50 na plausible short‑term outcome. Longer‑term upside to ≈$150 like Hayes yarn, depend on much higher revenue and market share (add about ≈3.96% more derivatives volume and new macro markets via HIP‑3). Risks dey temper the bullish case: past token unlocks, revenue concentration inside few high‑volume markets, and the track record say some of Hayes’ prior predictions no happen. Traders suppose weigh possible quick moves on volume spikes and buyback amplification against dilution events, liquidity shifts, and execution risk. Position sizing, stop management near the noted supports (~$32.28 and $28.98) and monitoring exchange volume/revenue metrics na recommended.