Crypto Rally Ahead as US Treasury Balance Nears $850B, Says Hayes
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes forecasts a major crypto rally once the US Treasury balance in its General Account (TGA) at the New York Fed stabilizes around $850 billion. The TGA, funded by bond sales and tax receipts, has climbed to $816.4 billion as of Sept 18, and previously breached $850 billion in early 2025. Since mid-July, the account’s aggressive buildup has drained liquidity from risk assets. Hayes argues that when the TGA stops drawing funds, this liquidity will return to Bitcoin and other altcoins, sparking a new breakout. He cites the July 1 debt ceiling rise, which enabled increased bond issuance and TGA replenishment. Traders will watch upcoming US Treasury balance updates closely for signs of renewed capital flows and upward momentum in the crypto market. However, some analysts caution that liquidity shifts may not directly translate into crypto price gains.
Bullish
Hayes’s forecast that the US Treasury balance drawdown will end at $850 billion suggests liquidity will shift back into cryptocurrencies. In the short term, traders may position for a bullish breakout as bond issuance slows and risk assets regain funding. Historically, TGA buildups have coincided with capital outflows; ending this cycle could trigger renewed inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins, driving price momentum. Over the longer term, sustained stability in the US Treasury balance could bolster market confidence and support higher valuations. While some analysts warn the link between net liquidity and crypto prices is weak, the TGA updates provide a clear catalyst for market moves.