Crypto Rally Dey Come As US Treasury Balance Near $850B, Hayes Talk
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes dey predict say big crypto rally go show once US Treasury balance for dia General Account (TGA) inside New York Fed come stabilize around $850 billion. The TGA, we dem dey fund from bond sales and tax receipts, don climb to $816.4 billion as of Sept 18, and e don pass $850 billion before for early 2025. Since middle July, the account build up strong don drain liquidity from risk assets. Hayes talk say when TGA stop to dey draw funds, this liquidity go return to Bitcoin and other altcoins, and e go spark new breakout. E talk about July 1 debt ceiling rise, wey let dem increase bond issuance and TGA fill again. Traders go dey watch upcoming US Treasury balance update well well for signs say capital flows go return and crypto market go start to move up. But some analysts dey warn say liquidity change no fit directly mean say crypto prices go rise.
Bullish
Hayes forecast sey di US Treasury balance drawdown go end for $850 billion mean sey liquidity go shift back to cryptocurrencies. For short term, traders fit position for bullish breakout as bond issuance slow down and risk assets begin to get funding again. Historically, TGA buildups don dey coincide with capital outflows; if dis cycle end, e fit trigger new inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins, wey go drive price momentum. For longer term, sustained stability for US Treasury balance fit boost market confidence and support higher valuations. Even though some analysts dey warn sey di link between net liquidity and crypto prices weak, the TGA updates dey provide clear catalyst for market moves.