HBAR tumbles to key support as TVL and stablecoin supply plunge, opening downside risk

HBAR has fallen sharply from July highs — down roughly 65% in the latest update — and recently tested a critical support near $0.1037. Technicals show a bearish descending triangle on the daily chart, with HBAR trading below its 50- and 100-day EMAs and the Supertrend, increasing the probability of a deeper drop toward about $0.085 if support breaks. The earlier report noted a 26% decline from August highs to $0.224 and highlighted a similar descending-triangle setup with resistance near $0.30 and a potential 55% downside to $0.10 if the pattern held. On-chain fundamentals have weakened between the two updates: Hedera’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) fell to roughly $61.5 million (down ~7.6% over 30 days and well below its prior peak above $205M), the lowest since Nov 2024. Stablecoin supply on Hedera also contracted — earlier figures showed a rise to $127M, but the later update reports a 16–17% decline over seven days to about $49M, leaving Hedera behind smaller chains like Sui, Base and Solana on this metric. Canary HBAR ETF flows have been modest (cumulative inflows ≈ $85M; net assets ≈ $57M), providing limited external support. The decline coincided with Hedera executives attending Davos, but ETF momentum remains weak. For traders: the combination of bearish technical structure (descending triangle, EMAs and Supertrend below price) and deteriorating on-chain liquidity (falling TVL and stablecoin supply), plus low ETF inflows, raises short-term downside risk and the possibility of increased volatility and weaker buy-side support in washouts. A decisive break above the triangle resistance near ~$0.30 (or reclaim of key EMAs) would invalidate the bearish case and reduce near-term downside risk.