52% Odds of Hormuz Closure Seen on Polymarket After U.S. Strikes
Polymarket traders have bumped up the probability of a Strait of Hormuz closure to 40% by June 30 and 52% by year-end following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This forecast reflects rising geopolitical tensions and the risk of an oil price shock. Around 20 million barrels of oil—20% of global consumption—pass through the Strait daily. Analysts at JPMorgan warn that a shutdown could push crude to $120–$130 per barrel, triggering stagflation that would hit financial assets, including cryptocurrencies. Despite the rising odds of a Hormuz closure, the crypto market has remained calm. Bitcoin continues to trade above $100,000, showing resilience amid heightened oil price and geopolitical risks. Traders should monitor oil markets and potential policy responses as catalysts for heightened volatility in both energy and crypto sectors.
Bearish
The surge in closure odds raises the threat of an oil price spike to $120–$130 per barrel. Historical oil shocks have led to risk-off sentiment, eroding appetite for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Stagflation fears, driven by sustained high energy costs, tend to weigh on market liquidity and investor risk tolerance. Although Bitcoin has held above $100K so far, any sustained oil-driven market stress or policy tightening could trigger a broader sell-off in crypto. In the short term, traders should brace for increased volatility tied to oil price moves. Long term, persistent stagflation risks could stifle inflows into growth assets, keeping a lid on crypto valuations.