Oil market shock fears after US-Iran peace deal won’t restart Hormuz flows—Bitcoin faces macro volatility

Crypto traders are watching macro risk again after HFI Research said the oil market has passed a “breaking point” around mid-April. Even if a US-Iran peace deal materializes, HFI argues the Strait of Hormuz recovery will be delayed by logistics, inventories, and tanker turnaround cycles—meaning the oil market shock may persist. HFI estimates ~160 million barrels of floating storage would start discharging, but transit and offloading would take 30–40 days, plus another ~20 days for tanker turnaround. For tankers headed to load US crude for Asia, the loading (6–8 weeks), transit (45–50 days), and offload/return (20–25 days) schedule implies meaningful Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return for at least three months. On the supply side, Middle East onshore storage is ~600 million barrels, but producers need roughly 200 million barrels drained to restart output—requiring at least ~100 VLCC. HFI suggests the rebalancing may not happen until mid-to-late June. The cumulative storage lost from the closure is ~1 billion barrels, rising to ~1.98 billion by end-June. With limited alternative crude to offset, the report warns the market may need “demand destruction” to restore equilibrium. For traders, the key is that the oil market stress is described as structural and timing-driven, not solved by diplomacy alone. That raises the odds of continued risk-off price action and headline-driven volatility in BTC in the short term, while the medium-term path depends on whether physical supply disruptions ease or extend into summer.