Shut down for di Strait of Hormuz don increase di chance say di US-Iran ceasefire go break before April 21

Strait of Hormuz still close as Israel–Iran tensions dey rise. Pakistan dey mediate possible US–Iran talks, but crypto-linked prediction markets don price higher risk say the US-Iran ceasefire go fail before April 21. For the “ceasefire breached/ended” contract, odds sharply jump. One report show “ceasefire end” near 23% YES (up from 6% earlier), while another push “Trump announces breach” chance to 17.5% from 8%. At the same time, the “Hormuz blockade lift” market drop toward ~78% (from ~90%), and the “diplomatic meetings” market slip, meaning traders dey doubt de-escalation. Liquidity thin, so movements fit accelerate on small orders: USDC-denominated activity limited, increasing chance of abrupt repricing. If Pakistan-mediated talks gain traction, probabilities fit ease; if talks stall, escalation odds fit rise quickly. Wetin to watch next 72 hours: any White House/Trump statements on the US-Iran ceasefire, reports of more military activity near the strait, and confirmation or failure of Pakistan-mediated talks. A faster escalation path tied to Strait of Hormuz closure na the key near-term catalyst.