HSBC Forecasts Two 25-Basis-Point Fed Hikes in 2026
HSBC now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both September and December 2026. The bank previously forecast that US monetary policy would remain unchanged. The revised Fed rate outlook signals a more hawkish view on inflation and economic conditions. For crypto traders, higher rates could pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets by reducing liquidity and increasing the appeal of the US dollar and Treasury yields. Market participants may monitor inflation data, employment figures and Federal Reserve guidance for confirmation.
Bearish
The expected market impact is bearish because HSBC has shifted from forecasting unchanged policy to predicting two 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026. Although this is only a bank forecast and not official Fed guidance, the change points to a potentially more restrictive interest-rate environment. Higher rates typically raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, strengthen the US dollar and reduce excess liquidity, conditions that can weigh on Bitcoin, Ethereum and broader crypto markets. In the short term, traders may price in the outlook through higher Treasury yields, dollar strength and reduced leverage, increasing volatility around inflation and employment releases. Similar hawkish repricing episodes have often pressured crypto prices, particularly when markets were positioned for rate cuts. The longer-term impact will depend on whether inflation remains persistent and whether the Federal Reserve confirms the projected hikes. If economic growth weakens or inflation falls faster than expected, the forecast could be reversed and risk assets could recover. Therefore, the signal is bearish but not decisive.