HYPE and Aster Face Geopolitical Headwinds as BTC Stalls

Geopolitical tensions tied to the Middle East have kept crypto markets cautious, with traders watching how risk assets respond. Bitcoin remains unable to break above $67,000, while attention has shifted to DEX-linked tokens. HYPE (Hyperliquid) is showing resilience despite the risk-off backdrop. In March, HYPE surged as high as $43, supported by strength in commodity derivatives. However, buying has cooled and profit-taking appears to be increasing when price dips. Technically, the key line is $35 support: losing it could extend a 10-day decline, with downside targets near $31 and then $28.20. Fundamentals remain a support: protocol TVL is strong versus peers, fees over the last 30 days exceeded $66M, and cumulative earnings are about $1.2B. Dollar inflows slowed, but performance still looks anchored in protocol activity rather than pure speculation. Aster is under more pressure. The token has been in a near-continuous decline for 16 days, hitting the lowest level since Feb 11. It briefly tested resistance around $0.63, but bearish sentiment and cooled community support after exchange controversies have weighed on demand. Aster is holding near the $0.65 support; a break back below $0.63 could push it toward $0.558. On-chain fundamentals are also deteriorating: protocol outflows accelerated through March, users/capital have been steadily leaving, TVL is falling, and $29.7M of supply is scheduled to unlock within about a month. Monthly protocol income has dropped to about $6M, which may reduce expectations for buybacks. With HYPE and Aster diverging—HYPE supported by protocol revenues and Aster strained by outflows—next price action will likely depend on market sentiment and the broader risk tone.