HYPE up 80% as Hyperliquid fees steady but valuations stretch
Hyperliquid’s HYPE has risen about 80% over the past 90 days, outperforming Bitcoin’s ~10% gain. But an analyst report says HYPE fundamentals are weakening relative to its current valuation.
Key derivatives and fee trends were mixed. Hyperliquid’s perpetual DEX generated $153.8M in fees over the last quarter (down 13% QoQ, up 12.3% YoY). Average daily trading volume rose to $7.07B (+6% QoQ), while open interest fell to ~$7.6B (down 51% from peak). Fees largely support HYPE buybacks, with 99% of fees used for repurchases.
Valuation looks stretched. Fully diluted price-to-sales reached 47.3 (up 67% QoQ and near record levels), an atypical “paying up” pattern when token valuations usually compress.
Capital flows and on-chain usage add to the divergence. Bridged capital into Hyperliquid was $3.36B (down 44% from peak) and net outflows totaled $730M over 90 days (including ~$500M since early April). Active addresses averaged ~46K/day (+6.6% QoQ), yet HyperEVM revenue fell 33% QoQ to $1.84M alongside a decline in active addresses. HIP-3 volume jumped 973% QoQ to $2.58B/day (36% of total volume).
For traders: HYPE price momentum is outpacing measurable usage and revenue signals, while the buyback yield on a fully diluted basis has fallen to 2.55%.
Bearish
Despite HYPE’s strong 80% rally, the report highlights a valuation/fundamental mismatch. Fees are still positive year-over-year, but they softened quarter-over-quarter, while open interest and bridged capital both declined—suggesting cooling leverage and liquidity inflows. The biggest warning for traders is that HYPE’s fully diluted price-to-sales has surged to near-record levels, while buyback yield has fallen to 2.55%, meaning price is absorbing more value than the current cashflow/rate of buyback can justify.
Short-term, the buyback mechanism and ongoing volume support downside buffering for HYPE if the market remains risk-on. However, with OI down from peak and net outflows sizable, rallies may face resistance as sophisticated participants focus on stretched multiples. Longer-term, if HyperEVM revenue weakness persists and only HIP-3 grows while other segments lag, traders may re-rate HYPE downward or demand a higher risk premium.