HYPE don hap 80% as Hyperliquid charges steady but valuations dey stretch
Hyperliquid HYPE don rise like 80% for past 90 days, e pass Bitcoin wey just gain about 10%. But one analyst report talk say HYPE fundamentals dey weak compared to how market don value am now.
Derivatives and fee trends mixed. Hyperliquid perpetual DEX collect $153.8M fees last quarter (down 13% QoQ, up 12.3% YoY). Average daily trading volume climb to $7.07B (+6% QoQ), but open interest drop to about $7.6B (51% down from peak). Fees mainly support HYPE buybacks—99% of fees dey used for repurchases.
Valuation don look stretched. Fully diluted price-to-sales reach 47.3 (up 67% QoQ and near record), na unusual "paying up" pattern since token valuations normally compress.
Capital flows and on-chain usage dey add to the divergence. Bridged capital into Hyperliquid na $3.36B (44% down from peak) and net outflows tot up $730M over 90 days (including about $500M since early April). Active addresses average ~46K/day (+6.6% QoQ), yet HyperEVM revenue fall 33% QoQ to $1.84M along with drop in active addresses. HIP-3 volume jump 973% QoQ to $2.58B/day (36% of total volume).
For traders: HYPE price momentum dey outpace measurable usage and revenue signals, while buyback yield on fully diluted basis don fall to 2.55%.
Bearish
Even though HYPE don do rally strong 80%, di report talk say valuation and fundamentals no match. Fees still dey positive year-on-year, but dem soft quarter-on-quarter, and open interest plus bridged capital don fall—this one show say leverage and liquidity inflows dey cool down. Big warning for traders be say HYPE full diluted price-to-sales don shoot near record levels, while buyback yield don drop to 2.55%, meaning price dey absorb more value than current cashflow/buyback rate fit justify.
Short-term, buyback mechanism and steady volume fit buffer downside for HYPE if market remain risk-on. But with OI down from peak and net outflows large, rallies fit meet resistance as smart players dey focus on stretched multiples. Long-term, if HyperEVM revenue remain weak and only HIP-3 dey grow while other segments lag, traders fit re-rate HYPE down or demand higher risk premium.