HYPE Faces $70–$65 Risk as $75 Support Weakens
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token traded near $75.47 on October 25, down almost 19% over the past month after retreating from its September high near $98. Futures volume fell 15.16% to $1.40 billion, while open interest edged down to $3.07 billion. A separate snapshot showed that 78.1% of tracked futures positions were long, leaving leveraged traders exposed to liquidations if prices fall.
HYPE saw about $2.47 million in net spot exchange outflows. Withdrawals can reduce tokens readily available on exchanges, but do not by themselves confirm buying. Hyperliquid’s fee-funded Assistance Fund has also purchased HYPE, though those buybacks have not stopped the recent decline.
Technical signals remain weak: the daily RSI was 34.29 and the MACD stayed negative. Analysts identified $70–$75 as support, with $65 as a further downside level if $75 breaks. Resistance sits near $80, then $85–$90. A sustained move above $80 could signal improving momentum, but HYPE remains vulnerable to further losses while support and bearish momentum indicators are under pressure.
Bearish
The near-term setup is bearish because HYPE has fallen sharply over the past month, repeatedly failed to hold above $80, and is testing the closely watched $75 area. Declining futures volume and a negative MACD point to weak momentum. The RSI is approaching oversold territory, which can sometimes precede a relief bounce, but it does not confirm a reversal. If $75 gives way, the cited $70 and $65 levels may attract attention and could prompt stop-loss selling or liquidations.
The reported concentration of long futures positions adds downside risk: a quick drop can force leveraged traders to close positions, amplifying volatility. This is a familiar pattern in crypto markets, where crowded positioning near support can intensify a sell-off when that level breaks. However, the positioning estimate covers only the provider’s tracked exchanges and is not a complete market census.
There are countervailing factors. Spot exchange outflows may reduce immediately available supply, and fee-funded HYPE buybacks provide a source of demand. Neither guarantees price support: withdrawals can reflect transfers rather than purchases, and buybacks have continued during the decline. In the short term, traders are likely to focus on whether HYPE holds $75 or reclaims $80. A sustained break above $80 would improve the technical picture; a close below $75 would strengthen the downside case. Longer term, trading activity and buybacks may support demand, but the article offers no confirmed trend reversal, so volatility and sensitivity to futures positioning remain key risks.