Hyperliquid’s on-chain perps double Coinbase’s 2025 notional volume
Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual futures exchange built on its own Layer 1, processed about $2.6 trillion in notional trading volume in 2025 — nearly double Coinbase’s roughly $1.4 trillion for the year, according to on-chain analytics firm Artemis. Hyperliquid’s growth was driven by high-frequency derivatives trading on-chain: daily peaks near $30 billion, monthly volumes in the hundreds of billions, TVL approaching $6 billion and open interest peaking around $16 billion. Active users rose from ~300,000 to 1.4 million in a year. The platform’s low fees, fast execution, on-chain settlement, UX similar to centralized platforms, and HYPE token buyback/burn mechanics supported adoption. Notable market figures have increased HYPE holdings, and Hyperliquid is testing products such as outcome-based contracts and limited-risk options. By contrast, Coinbase remains a major centralized entry point with higher fees and stricter compliance; its stock is down ~27% year-to-date. Risks include rising competition among on-chain derivatives DEXs, regulatory scrutiny, and execution or smart-contract vulnerabilities. For traders: the shift signals growing liquidity and choice in on-chain derivatives, potential fee and spread compression across derivatives markets, and increased attention on HYPE and related derivatives — factors that may affect short-term volatility and longer-term market structure for professional traders.
Bullish
This development is bullish for on-chain derivatives and for Hyperliquid specifically. Key reasons: 1) Liquidity signal — $2.6T notional volume and spikes to ~$30B/day show deep liquidity, which attracts professional flow and market makers, improving execution and tightening spreads. 2) User growth and TVL — rapid growth in active users (300k → 1.4M) and TVL near $6B indicate sustainable onboarding and capital commitment, supporting higher markets for HYPE and related products. 3) Product innovation — new contract types (outcome-based contracts, limited-risk options) expand addressable market and trading strategies, likely increasing volumes and fee revenue. 4) Competitive pressure on centralized venues — lower fees and on-chain settlement can pull professional traders away from CEX derivatives, pressuring fees/spreads industry-wide and shifting order flow on-chain. Counterpoints that temper the outlook: regulatory scrutiny of on-chain derivatives, smart-contract risk, and rising competition from rivals (Aster, Lighter) could cause episodic outflows or volatility. Short-term impact: increased volatility around HYPE and on-chain perp pairs as liquidity migration and re-pricing occur; trading opportunities from tighter spreads and product launches. Long-term impact: potential structural shift of derivatives liquidity to on-chain venues, sustained fee compression for CEXs, and greater importance of governance/tokenomics (HYPE) in platform economics. Historical parallels: similar bullish momentum followed growth of Perpetual DEXs (e.g., early dYdX v2 migration) where on-chain liquidity and product improvements led to measurable shifts in professional flow and fee models. Overall, market dynamics favor on-chain derivatives adoption, supporting a bullish outlook while acknowledging execution and regulatory risks.