Hyperliquid’s TradFi Growth Lifts HYPE Forecast, but Fees Are Key
Hyperliquid’s non-crypto trading has grown rapidly, from zero in September 2025 to a peak of 51% of platform volume in July 2026. It represented about 30% of October volume and 40% of the $7.2 billion traded on 27 October, with single stocks the largest non-crypto category.
Neutral
Hyperliquid’s expansion into traditional financial markets is a potential long-term positive for HYPE because it could diversify platform revenue beyond crypto trading cycles. The rising share of non-crypto volume and the model’s higher valuation scenarios may support investor interest. However, these estimates depend on ambitious assumptions about market share, trading growth and the ability to sustain fees. The fee sensitivity is significant: matching CME’s much lower rate would reduce the model’s base valuation to $66 per HYPE. Binance’s larger reported TradFi perpetuals volume adds competitive pressure, while weaker crypto activity or lower USDC yields could also undermine projected revenue. In the short term, traders may respond to volume and valuation headlines, but the scenario-based nature of the projections and competitive risks limit the case for a clear directional price signal. Overall, the growth opportunity is balanced by material execution and fee risks, supporting a neutral view.