IBM Shares Rise 6% After Earnings Beat; AI Book of Business $12.5B, 2026 Revenue Guide >5%
IBM shares jumped about 6% after the company beat fourth-quarter expectations and outlined a 2026 revenue guide above 5%. Q4 revenue was $19.7 billion, with software up 14% and infrastructure up 21%; demand for IBM Z drove a 67% surge in that segment. For full-year 2025 IBM delivered 6% revenue growth and generated $14.7 billion in free cash flow — its highest in over a decade — while adjusted EBITDA rose 17% and operating pretax margins expanded 100 basis points. Software now represents roughly 45% of revenue and posted a 9% annual growth rate. IBM disclosed a cumulative generative AI book of business of $12.5 billion but said it will stop reporting that standalone metric next quarter. Red Hat growth cooled to about 8%–10%, consulting revenue grew 1%, and IBM flagged roughly $600 million of earnings dilution from its planned $11 billion Confluent acquisition. Management reaffirmed a quarterly dividend of $1.68 and expects about $1 billion of free-cash-flow improvement in 2026, while warning of possible near-term pressure from higher taxes, capex and interest. Traders should watch volume sustainability after the premarket surge, AI metric disclosure changes, Red Hat momentum, and guidance implications for margins and free cash flow.
Neutral
The news is neutral for crypto markets. IBM’s earnings beat and strong cash-flow metrics are primarily corporate and enterprise-software news — bullish for IBM equity and for AI and hybrid-cloud confidence, but only indirectly relevant to crypto. The disclosed $12.5B generative AI book underscores continued enterprise demand for AI infrastructure and services, which could support blockchain-related enterprise projects and tokenized infrastructure plays over the long term. However IBM’s decision to stop reporting the standalone AI metric reduces transparency and may introduce uncertainty about AI momentum. Short-term market reaction is likely limited to risk-on moves in broader tech equities; crypto traders may see modest spillover (improved risk appetite) if equities extend gains, but no direct catalyst for major crypto price moves. Historically, strong tech earnings can correlate with short-term crypto rallies when liquidity shifts into risk assets, yet sector-specific headwinds (Confluent acquisition dilution, slower Red Hat growth, higher taxes/capex) temper upside. Overall expect modest, short-lived positive sentiment if equity gains persist, but no sustained crypto market shift purely from this IBM report.