IMF Warns USD-Pegged Stablecoins Could Threaten Emerging Market Currencies; Experts Say Risk Is Limited
The IMF’s December 2025 report ’Understanding Stablecoins’ warns that USD‑pegged stablecoins could facilitate currency substitution and circumvent capital flow management in vulnerable emerging markets (EMs), potentially undermining local currencies and accelerating capital outflows. The report cites research showing crypto— including stablecoins—has been used in some instances for capital flight and argues stablecoin penetration in high‑inflation or unstable fiat jurisdictions raises macrofinancial risks. CoinDesk data cited in the article shows major stablecoins (USDT and USDC) combine for around $264 billion market cap. IMF analysis highlights that stablecoins enable dollar access without bank accounts and could amplify panic-induced outflows similar to past EM crises.
Experts quoted (Noelle Acheson and Coinbase’s David Duong) counter that stablecoins remain too small in scale relative to global FX flows and predominant dollar liquidity (M2 and international liabilities), and about 80% of stablecoin usage is for crypto trading rather than treasury or corporate FX substitution. Cross‑border stablecoin flows are growing—about $1.5 trillion in 2024 corridors involving EMDEs—but still represent a tiny slice of the global payments ecosystem. The article concludes that while stablecoins pose theoretical risks to EM monetary control, current market size, policy frictions and legal constraints mean systemic macro impact is unlikely in the near term.
Neutral
The news is categorized as neutral. The IMF report raises meaningful macrofinancial concerns—currency substitution and circumvention of capital flow management—highlighting a plausible risk vector for emerging markets. Such regulatory scrutiny can create medium-term uncertainty for stablecoin projects and possibly pressure on risk-sensitive tokens. However, multiple experts in the story stress that stablecoins’ current scale and usage patterns (predominantly crypto trading) are small relative to global FX and dollar liquidity metrics, limiting immediate systemic impact. Historical analogues (EM outflows during the 2013 taper tantrum) show that easier, peer‑to‑peer USD access could amplify crises, but only if stablecoin adoption and on‑chain flows reach much larger scale.
For traders: short term, the piece may produce headline-driven volatility in stablecoin‑adjacent tokens or regulatory‑sensitive names but is unlikely to trigger broad market moves in major assets like BTC/ETH. Medium to long term, sustained growth in cross‑border stablecoin flows or concrete regulatory actions referenced by the IMF could weigh on regional risk assets and increase demand for dollar‑pegged assets; conversely, clearer regulation could reduce policy uncertainty and ultimately be seen as stabilizing. Monitor on‑chain stablecoin flow metrics, regulatory developments, and EM local currency stress indicators to adjust positioning.