Institutional Bitcoin selling nears $63K cost basis as downside risk rises
Bitcoin is in a sixth straight month of decline after peaking near $126,000. On-chain and market data suggest the correction may not be over.
Institutional selling is a key driver. Disclosures tracked by AMBCrypto show corporate treasuries cut exposure by about 1% recently. At least four companies reduced holdings between March and early April: Mara Holdings sold 15,133 BTC in March (>$1B). Riot Platforms and Empery Digital offloaded a combined 2,295 BTC (~$156M) by April 2. Even so, corporates still control about 1.16M BTC (~$77B), leaving them exposed as price approaches key long-term holder cost levels.
That cost basis is crucial. CryptoQuant’s UTXO Realized Price Age Distribution shows BTC nearing the ~$63,049 acquisition cost for holders who bought 18–24 months ago. Bitcoin trading around $66,794 has narrowed the cushion. A sustained break could push these holders toward losses, increasing defensive selling. The risk is amplified by short-term holders, and NUPL at ~0.6 signals unrealized gains are compressing—raising capitulation odds if weakness persists.
Recovery potential looks limited. Spot demand has weakened: ~$8.04B in spot purchases over 120 days, versus ~$6.17B over the last 90 days. With macro/geopolitical uncertainty also dampening risk appetite, absent stronger inflows, BTC remains vulnerable to further downside.
Key term: institutional selling and Bitcoin cost-basis pressure are tightening the window for stabilization.
Bearish
该报道偏空的核心依据是“机构抛售 + 关键成本基础逼近 + 资金面修复不足”三重叠加：
1) 机构减仓增加下跌的延续性。文中指出企业金库近期约减持1%，且Mara、Riot Platforms、Empery Digital等都在3月到4月初降低暴露。类似事件往往不会立刻反转趋势，但会在价格接近关键支撑时放大抛压。
2) 价格逼近18–24个月长期持币人的 ~$63,049 成本区。若跌破，历史上常见的链上行为是：持币者从“未实现盈利”转向“接近亏损/亏损”，更容易出现防御性卖出与筹码再平衡。报道同时提到短期持币者更敏感，NUPL约0.6显示未实现利润被压缩，这会提高连锁式抛售与恐慌的概率。
3) 现货需求不足限制反弹。过去120天现货买入高于90天，但两者都不足以吸收持续卖压。再加上宏观不确定性压制风险偏好，市场更可能维持“反弹无力、下探驱动”的结构。
短期上，关键在于$63k附近是否被有效守住：守住则可能止跌；若失守，容易触发成本基础下方的进一步减仓。中长期上，若机构与资金流入持续偏弱，即便回到更低支撑，反转的时间也可能被延后。