Bitcoin Treasury Firms Must Differentiate as mNAVs Collapse
As bitcoin treasury firms face a broad mNAV collapse, investors are shifting focus to those with clear competitive edges. There are 205 publicly listed companies holding $113.8 billion in BTC, yet market net asset values have plunged due to market saturation and a recent nearly 10% drop in Bitcoin price. Standard Chartered warns smaller players are most at risk. Analysts at Breed and Glassnode predict only a few treasury firms will survive, while TON Strategy labels the trend a bubble spawning a nascent financial segment.
KindlyMD CEO David Bailey—who led its merger with Nakamoto Holdings on August 14 to build a 1 million BTC treasury—says new entrants must pursue unique strategies to stand out. Recommendations include tapping untapped international markets, specializing in credit assets or acquiring steady-income businesses. Despite its ambitions, KindlyMD’s share price fell 57% over six months, with a single-day 55% plunge on September 15.
This sector maturation suggests a shift toward a healthier ecosystem dominated by differentiated leaders. Traders should watch business differentiation and mNAV trends closely as indicators of institutional adoption and long-term stability.
Bearish
The collapse in mNAVs and warnings of market saturation will likely heighten short-term selling pressure on BTC as traders reassess overvalued exposure to underperforming treasury firms. Continued share-price declines, such as KindlyMD’s, reinforce negative sentiment. In the long term, consolidation around well-differentiated leaders may stabilize the sector, but the current wave of unwind suggests bearish momentum will persist until clearer market winners emerge.