Strait of Hormuz closure lifts WTI Crude price odds to $110–$120

Prediction markets are pricing a higher chance that WTI Crude trades at elevated levels in May 2026. The “YES” probability for WTI Crude at $110 rises to about 56% (from ~53%), while the $120 level climbs to roughly 26% (from ~22%). The key driver is the Strait of Hormuz closure, linked to escalating Iran–Israel tensions. The article says the chokepoint disruption can block about 20% of global seaborne oil and gas trade, increasing energy security risk. Because the disruption’s duration remains uncertain, traders embed a sustained supply shock into WTI Crude expectations, with $110 becoming the current focal level and higher thresholds gaining traction. What to watch next: any US–Iran negotiation developments that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, plus shifts in OPEC+ and updates to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil forecasts. Additional military activity in the Persian Gulf could quickly change the WTI Crude probability curve. For traders, this matters because higher WTI Crude upside odds typically reinforce broader risk sentiment and macro-driven volatility, which can spill into crypto via funding rates, FX, and liquidation dynamics—especially if the Strait of Hormuz outlook worsens further.