US-Iran nuclear deal odds slip as Iran uses Pakistan to relay responses

US-Iran nuclear deal odds weakened after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir to deliver Tehran’s response to “peace proposals.” Iran reiterated that the visit is limited to bilateral discussions, reinforcing a stance against US-Iran nuclear talks. Prediction markets priced continued indirect communication via Pakistan rather than a direct channel. The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 fell to 5.8% (from 9%). The US-Iran nuclear deal contract tied to an April 30 deadline slipped to about 6.8% (about 6 days left), while “no meeting by June 30” also eased to 5.8%. Trading remains active in USDC terms, with roughly $7,699 of daily volume. Market depth of around $1,550 was needed to move odds by 5 percentage points, and the largest repricing occurred around 3:50 PM (odds jumped ~4 points from 8% to 12%). For traders, the key catalyst remains any White House or Iranian foreign ministry signal that shifts US-Iran nuclear negotiations from Pakistan-mediated talks to direct discussions or implies nuclear concessions—an outcome that would likely reprice both the meeting and US-Iran nuclear deal contracts quickly.