Chances for US-Iran nuclear deal don dey drop as Iran dey use Pakistan to relay responses

Chances for US–Iran nuclear deal don weak after Iran foreign minister Abbas Araghchi meet Pakistan army chief Asim Munir to deliver Tehran answer to “peace proposals.” Iran yarn say the visit na only for bilateral talks, them solidify dem stance against direct US–Iran nuclear talks. Prediction markets put value say communication go continue indirect through Pakistan instead of direct channel. Chance say US and Iran go hold diplomatic meeting by June 30 drop to 5.8% (from 9%). The US–Iran nuclear deal contract wey tie to April 30 deadline drop to about 6.8% (about 6 days left), while “no meeting by June 30” also ease to 5.8%. Trading still dey active for USDC terms, with roughly $7,699 daily volume. Market depth of around $1,550 na wetin dem need to move odds by 5 percentage points, and the biggest repricing happen around 3:50 PM (odds jump ~4 points from 8% to 12%). For traders, the main catalyst na any signal from the White House or Iranian foreign ministry wey shift US–Iran nuclear talks from Pakistan-mediated to direct talks or show possible nuclear concessions—this fit quickly reprice both the meeting and US–Iran nuclear deal contracts.