Experts: Iran Closing Strait of Hormuz and Crashing Markets Is Unlikely

As tensions rose after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Iran’s missile retaliation, crypto social channels feared Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint handling roughly 20 million barrels per day in 2024 — pushing oil toward $120–$150, sparking inflation and a broad market sell-off that would hit Bitcoin. Bitcoin briefly fell from ~$65,600 to $63,000 before rebounding near $65,000 while oil futures rose over 5% on some platforms. Analysts including economist Daniel Lacalle and energy expert Dr. Anas Alhajji counter that a full closure is unlikely or impractical: Iran produces about 3.3 million bpd but exports roughly half (mostly to China), the main shipping lanes lie in Omani waters, and logistical, strategic and economic constraints — plus potential offsetting output from OPEC or the U.S. — limit the chance of a sustained blockade. However, experts warn that a wider war or prolonged escalation could trigger risk-off flows, raise volatility and push Bitcoin below key supports (notably ~$60,000). For traders: expect short-term oil-driven volatility and sentiment swings; a temporary supply shock is more probable than a sustained cutoff, so position sizing, tight stops and monitoring oil and safe-haven flows are advised.