Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump’s Push Faces Low Chances as US-Iran Divide Deepens

The article says President Donald Trump’s administration is again pursuing a “bigger and better” Iran nuclear deal, but the likelihood of agreement remains very low. It revives a file shaped by the 2015 JCPOA, which Trump abandoned in 2018 and replaced with “maximum pressure” sanctions. Key officials reopened backchannel talks via intermediaries in Oman and Switzerland, arguing Iran’s expanding nuclear capabilities and wider regional activities require a stricter framework than the JCPOA. However, analysts and former negotiators cite structural obstacles. Iran reportedly demands full and verifiable US sanctions relief upfront, while the US prefers phased relief tied to compliance. Iran’s uranium enrichment is described as nearing weapons-grade levels (around 60% enrichment is referenced), alongside a growing network of proxy militias. Meanwhile, Israel and Saudi Arabia are said to oppose any deal that could provide sanctions relief without firm limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles and regional influence. Domestic politics also constrains both sides. In Washington, Congress could scrutinize any accord. In Tehran, hardliners view comprehensive negotiations as a strategic vulnerability. The article highlights the stakes of continued stalemate: higher risk of a regional nuclear arms race and a possible military confrontation, plus persistent economic spillovers—especially sensitivity of oil markets around the Strait of Hormuz. In practical terms, the “Iran nuclear deal” is blocked by four recurring disputes: sanctions relief timing, nuclear enrichment limits and facility closures, constraints on regional activities, and verification/inspection rules. Overall, the piece concludes diplomacy may still focus more on preventing escalation than on achieving a grand bargain.