Iran regime change odds for June 30 fall to 13.5%

Iran regime change odds for June 30 show a bearish drift. The YES probability is now 13.5%, down from 20% a week earlier, according to a crypto prediction market tracking the question “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?”. A former CIA operative, cited by the report, argues Iran’s entrenched system is tougher than Washington expects. The market cites resilience from power structures such as the IRGC and the clerical establishment. The June 30 contract moved only modestly (about a +1 point spike on the prior day), suggesting no shock repricing. Liquidity is also highlighted: daily trading is about $59,602 in USDC terms, and roughly $195,747 is needed to shift prices by 5 percentage points—reducing the likelihood of large swings from small orders. For traders, the payoff structure matters. At a YES price around 13.5¢, a correct bet pays $1 by June 30, implying roughly a 7.4x return if the Iran regime change thesis plays out. To justify new longs, traders would likely need credible signs of an internal fracture or sudden upheaval within the next 88 days, such as IRGC leadership shifts, activity from the Assembly of Experts, or changes in US official rhetoric.