Iran warns it controls the Strait of Hormuz, odds of US blockade lift fall

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran has “exclusive control” of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that if Iran faces a US blockade, passage will be blocked. His hardline stance is unsettling traders in the Strait of Hormuz blockade prediction market linked to Donald Trump’s claim about lifting a US blockade by May 31. Market odds moved sharply lower. The probability of a May 31 resolution fell to about 78% (from ~90%). The April 19 term also dropped to ~7.5% (from ~28%), and the term structure suggests skepticism about progress between April 19 and May 31. For diplomacy, the chance of a meeting by April 30 declined to ~13.2%, pointing to lower near-term de-escalation odds. On market microstructure, liquidity looked moderate, with about $29.6k USDC traded over 24 hours and roughly $1,419 USDC needed to shift prices by 5 points. A 5-point drop occurred shortly after Ghalibaf’s comments, consistent with sell pressure. Key watch items for traders: further statements from Trump and CENTCOM, plus regional actions (e.g., Oman). In the Strait of Hormuz blockade outlook, headline risk remains high and volatility can return quickly if rhetoric or ship-transit patterns change.