Bernstein cut IREN target to $100, dey see upside for AI cloud
Bernstein lower dia IREN price target from $125 to $100 but still keep Outperform rating, sey IREN still dey lead the “AI vs. crypto” transition. The downgrade na because Bitcoin mining economics don weak and den more shares don enter because of dilution, no be because AI demand drop.
Main idea be say IREN don shift from BTC mining to leasing AI cloud GPUs. Dem reduce modeled Bitcoin mining near-zero and dem dey use their 4.5GW power capacity (Texas, British Columbia, Oklahoma) to expand AI operations. Main deal na five-year Microsoft contract: IREN go lease 77,000 of their 150,000 GPUs to Microsoft, targeting $1.94B annualized revenue. Additional AI cloud contracts add about $400M as of February. Dell go supply Nvidia GB300 processors under $5.8B purchase agreement, while GPU-backed financing of $3.6B at under 6% interest dey help cover ~95% of the Microsoft contract.
For traders, main takeaway be say IREN valuation sensitivity dey move from BTC mining to AI cloud contract execution. Bernstein project AI cloud revenue about $2.6B by 2027 and ~$6B by 2030, which support high scalability at scale. Near term, dilution still remain risk for IREN holders even as crypto market prices (BTC around $76.4k) dey range-bound.
Neutral
Bernstein move mixed. Di lower IREN target show say near-term Bitcoin mining economics don weak and dilution risk fit pressure IREN equity sentiment. But dem still keep Outperform rating mean structural shift to AI cloud GPU leasing, supported by long-duration Microsoft contracted revenue and extra signed contracts, wey fit reduce dependence on BTC price moves over time. Net impact on BTC sef limited for this news framing because model dey assign zero value to mining, while traders fit focus on AI-vs-crypto rotation rather than immediate BTC fundamentals.