Weak US ISM Manufacturing PMI Extends Bitcoin Market Cycle
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained below the 50 threshold for seven consecutive months, signaling ongoing contraction and macroeconomic headwinds in manufacturing. Historically, peaks in the ISM Manufacturing PMI have coincided with Bitcoin market cycle highs.
The sustained PMI weakness suggests this Bitcoin cycle may extend beyond the usual four-year halving timeline, potentially delaying peak prices until late 2025 or later. Although September’s PMI report showed a slight uptick, rising input prices and continued export and import declines underscore uneven recovery amid high tariffs and trade uncertainty. Traders should track any sustained PMI rebound above 50 as a possible catalyst for renewed Bitcoin momentum. Meanwhile, persistent manufacturing softness is likely to prolong volatility and encourage data-driven, wait-and-see strategies.
Bearish
The persistent contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI signals extended macroeconomic pressure, delaying traditional Bitcoin cycle catalysts such as post-halving rallies. Historical correlations between PMI peaks and Bitcoin highs suggest peak prices may not materialize until late 2025 or beyond. This ongoing weakness is likely to suppress risk appetite and discourage new entries, increasing short-term volatility and potentially delaying upward momentum. Over the long term, Bitcoin’s market cycle may stretch beyond typical patterns, but immediate market response is expected to be muted. Traders should prepare for subdued price action until a clear PMI rebound occurs.