Chance say ceasefire between Israel an Hezbollah na 100% as dem strikes dey spread to east Lebanon

Di look good for ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah after Reuters tok say Israeli airstrikes don spread enter eastern Lebanon. The fighting dey widen geografic wise, and dat make near-term ceasefire hard to negotiate. Two prediction markets wey dey tied to timing still dey priced “YES”=100%: one for June 30 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and one for April 30 wey relate to Trump supporting Israeli ceasefire. But the article talk say this confidence dey fragile because if dem add more territory and open new operational fronts, e fit force more bargaining. Another contract wey say “Netanyahu go leave by June 30” still steady around 5.5%–6% YES, mean say the Lebanon escalation no fit directly change Netanyahu domestic political position or coalition dynamics. For traders, main catalysts na official statements from Netanyahu and the IDF, plus any change for US diplomatic stance—especially from Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Any shift fit quickly move ceasefire probabilities, especially if deadlines (April 30 or June 30) no meet.