Israel Withdraws from Lebanon odds slip as airstrikes kill 13; June 30 chance falls

Prediction markets for “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon” show the probability of an Israeli withdrawal by June 30, 2026 falling to 9% (from 10% the prior day). The April 30, 2026 outcome is already closed at 0.1% YES, while May 31, 2026 is priced at 2.7% YES. The latest move comes after reports that Lebanon’s health ministry said 13 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. The strikes are discussed as part of the wider 2026 Lebanon War, which escalated after Hezbollah rockets hit northern Israel on March 2, following a U.S.-Israel operation against Iran. Israel launched a ground invasion on March 3. A two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan did not stop fighting, and Lebanon-Israel talks on April 14 also failed to end hostilities. Traders reading this setup link the “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon” odds slide to ongoing airstrikes and limited diplomatic progress. Key watch items remain statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of General Staff Yoav Gallant, plus any new Lebanon-Israel negotiation updates and fresh Hezbollah activity that could reprice “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon.”