Israel Attacks on Iran Risk Oil Prices Surge amid Regime Collapse

Israel’s eight-day bombing campaign against Iran has senior officials warning of a possible collapse of Tehran’s regime—and a major shock to global oil prices. Although Brent and US crude have risen only about 10% to just under $80 per barrel so far, analysts say true supply shocks could be looming. JPMorgan research on eight past oil-producing regime changes shows prices spiked an average of 76%, settling 30% higher than before. If Iran’s political structure unravels, markets may need to price in the loss of 3 million barrels per day. Beyond damaged oil fields, Tehran could target tankers or even block the Strait of Hormuz—a route for 20% of world crude—jamming transponders and prolonging disruptions. Rapidan Energy Group assigns a 70% chance of US airstrikes hitting Iran’s nuclear sites, potentially lifting oil prices by $4–6 per barrel. With oil prices poised to jump and geopolitical risk rising, traders must monitor developments closely.