Israel withdraws from Lebanon as Aoun backs talks, Hezbollah resists ceasefire

Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun said negotiating with Israel is not treason as he pushes to end hostilities with a ceasefire. He urged direct talks despite Hezbollah’s refusal, insisting on keeping its weapons and complicating Lebanon’s internal politics. The truce has been brokered by the U.S. and is currently extended until mid-May, with terms tied to enforcement of Lebanese sovereignty while allowing Israeli self-defense. Aoun’s stance suggests a potential de-escalation pathway, echoing a prior negotiation model from 1983, but Hezbollah’s opposition keeps the ceasefire fragile. In prediction market pricing, “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026” is at 0.1% YES (unchanged). The longer-horizon “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” stands at 9.5% YES, down slightly from 10% the previous day. Overall, traders appear to assign only moderate odds to an “Israel withdraws from Lebanon” outcome, with de-escalation seen as possible but politically constrained. What to watch: any official announcements or troop-movement updates from Israel or Lebanon, Hezbollah’s statements on truce enforcement, and whether U.S. mediation or UN involvement changes ceasefire terms. These factors could shift probabilities around the “Israel withdraws from Lebanon” scenarios in the near term and affect longer-dated expectations.