Japan’s Top Brokerages Plan Crypto Exchanges as FSA Reclassifies Bitcoin
Japan’s largest securities firms — Nomura, Daiwa Securities and SMBC Nikko — are preparing to enter the domestic cryptocurrency market by planning regulated crypto platforms and related services. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) is drafting rules under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act that would reclassify Bitcoin and other major digital assets as investment products rather than payments, part of a broader set of reforms labeled 2026 as the “Digital Year.” Key regulatory proposals include enabling spot crypto ETFs by 2028 (via amendments to the Investment Funds Act) and cutting the top tax rate on crypto gains to 20% from 55%, aligning crypto tax treatment with equities. Nomura aims to launch a Japan crypto exchange via its Swiss crypto unit before end-2026; Daiwa and SMBC Nikko are actively evaluating exchange plans and institutional services such as custody and treasury management. Industry forecasts see Japan’s spot crypto ETF market reaching roughly ¥1 trillion (~$6.7bn) in the medium term, attracting institutional capital and shifting the market from speculative retail activity toward regulated, institutional participation. For traders, the proposals imply increased institutional flow, potential ETF-related demand, improved custody and compliance standards, and possible downward pressure on tax-related selling if the 20% cap is enacted.
Bullish
The news is bullish for crypto markets in Japan and regionally because it signals a major shift toward institutional adoption and clearer regulation. Reclassifying Bitcoin as an investment product, enabling spot ETFs by 2028, and lowering top tax rates to 20% all reduce regulatory and tax barriers that have deterred institutional capital. Major brokerages (Nomura, Daiwa, SMBC Nikko) preparing exchanges, custody and treasury services imply incoming institutional flows, improved liquidity, and the potential for ETF-driven demand — historically positive drivers for prices and market depth. Short-term effects: increased speculation and price upside on regulatory optimism, potential volatility around announcement milestones and draft confirmations, and localized rallies in BTC and large-cap tokens. Medium-to-long term effects: greater institutional participation, deeper liquidity, more regulated product offerings (ETF, custody), and reduced retail-dominant volatility as capital rebalances into long-term holdings. Caveats: implementation risk (legislative timing, details), potential regulatory constraints in final rules, and macro factors (rates, global risk sentiment) that could mute the positive impact. Overall, the balance of factors points to a net positive (bullish) outlook assuming reforms progress as proposed.