JPMorgan: Stablecoin growth will track crypto market, unlikely to hit $1T by 2028
JPMorgan analysts say the stablecoin market will expand with the broader crypto market and is unlikely to reach $1 trillion by 2028, instead projecting roughly $500–$600 billion. The report notes the market is just over $300 billion today, up about $100 billion this year, with growth concentrated in USDT and USDC (USDT +$48bn, USDC +$34bn). Demand is driven mainly by trading activity — cash and collateral for derivatives and DeFi — including a notable $20 billion rise in stablecoins held at derivatives exchanges amid booming perpetual futures volumes. JPMorgan warns that broader payment use may raise transaction velocity more than outstanding supply; it estimates USDT velocity near 50 and suggests $10 trillion of cross-border payment flows could be supported by roughly $200 billion in circulating stablecoins. The bank flags competitive risks from central bank digital currencies (digital euro, digital yuan) and bank-led tokenized deposits, which could limit private stablecoin adoption in institutional and cross-border use cases. JPMorgan contrasts its $500–$600bn 2028 outlook with higher forecasts from Citi and Standard Chartered, and notes it has launched an institutional JPM Coin (JPMD) on Base to speed transfers for clients. Primary keywords: stablecoin market, JPMorgan, USDT, USDC, CBDC. Secondary keywords: perpetual futures, tokenized deposits, transaction velocity, cross-border payments.
Neutral
The report is largely descriptive and sets modest growth expectations for stablecoins, tying issuance to overall crypto market cap and trading demand. For traders, this is neutral: it does not signal an imminent positive shock that would drive a strong price rally for stablecoins (which are designed to be stable), nor does it predict a systemic collapse that would be immediately bearish. Short-term implications: increased stablecoin supply tied to derivatives activity can support liquidity and margin needs during rallies in BTC and ETH, potentially smoothing volatility in spot markets and easing funding stress. The noted rise in stablecoins on derivatives venues signals higher trading activity, which can correlate with higher crypto volatility but also deeper liquidity. Medium-to-long-term implications: competition from CBDCs and tokenized bank deposits could cap private stablecoin adoption in institutional corridors, restraining native growth and limiting upside in overall stablecoin market cap relative to bullish forecasts. The velocity point means payment adoption may not require a large increase in outstanding supply, muting market-cap-driven bullish narratives. Overall, the news suggests stablecoin-related market structure will evolve (more institutional rails, JPM Coin adoption), improving settlement efficiency but keeping private stablecoin market growth broadly aligned with broader crypto market performance. That profile warrants a neutral categorization for price impact on the assets discussed.