JPMorgan: 2026 crypto inflows to exceed 2025 as institutions replace retail
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou say the crypto market drew roughly $130 billion of inflows in 2025 — about a one-third increase from 2024 — and could attract even more capital in 2026 as institutional investors replace retail and corporate buyers. Retail demand largely drove spot Bitcoin and Ether ETF inflows in 2025, while corporate Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) were major buyers, accounting for roughly $68 billion (about $23 billion from a single ‘Strategy’ buyer and ~$45 billion from other DATs). The bank notes a slowdown in institutional and hedge-fund buying of CME Bitcoin and Ether futures in 2025, and that crypto venture capital saw only modest growth with fewer deals and a shift toward later-stage rounds. JPMorgan expects clearer U.S. regulation — notably the proposed Clarity Act — to catalyze renewed institutional adoption in 2026, extending activity into stablecoin issuers, payment firms, exchanges, custody, blockchain infrastructure, venture funding, M&A and IPOs. Analysts also observe that prior de-risking has eased and position reductions stabilized in Q4 2025. Implications for traders: anticipate increased liquidity and potential upside for BTC and ETH as institutional flows resume, but monitor regulatory milestones and timing of institutional allocations; reduced futures buying and softer VC activity imply uneven participation across market segments and potential shifts in volatility and derivatives pricing.
Bullish
The combined reports point to a likely rise in institutional allocations to crypto in 2026, which is broadly bullish for the main spot-traded coins mentioned (BTC and ETH). Large institutional flows tend to increase liquidity, compress bid-ask spreads, and can support higher price floors as buy-side demand is more persistent than retail flows. JPMorgan highlights $130bn of inflows in 2025 driven by retail ETF purchases and $68bn from corporate DATs; the expected shift to institutional buyers backed by clearer U.S. regulation (eg, the Clarity Act) would likely amplify liquidity and reduce some idiosyncratic volatility over the medium term. Short-term effects could include renewed price appreciation and episodic volatility around regulatory milestones and institutional allocation windows. Offsetting factors: reduced CME futures buying by institutions and muted VC activity signal uneven participation — derivatives-driven leverage and speculative flows may stay subdued, and price rallies could concentrate in spot markets. Traders should watch timing of institutional allocations, ETF and DAT flows, regulatory developments, and changes in futures open interest to time entries and risk management.