JPMorgan: Bitcoin Undervalued vs Gold After Deleveraging
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou find Bitcoin mechanically cheaper than gold on a volatility-adjusted basis after recent market deleveraging. A sell-off driven by heavy liquidations in Bitcoin perpetual futures and a $128 million Balancer DeFi hack pushed Bitcoin from its $126,000 peak in early October to below $100,000. The ratio of open interest to market capitalization has now normalized, signaling low risk of further forced liquidations. By comparing volatility-adjusted risk consumption against $6.2 trillion in private sector gold investment, JPMorgan pegs Bitcoin’s fair value near $170,000—about $68,000 above current levels. Traders may view this under-valuation and reduced liquidation risk as a bullish entry opportunity under the “digital gold” narrative for the next 6–12 months.
Bullish
JPMorgan’s analysis highlights a significant undervaluation of Bitcoin on a volatility-adjusted basis, with a normalized open interest ratio reducing liquidation risk. This suggests both lower short-term downside and higher long-term upside toward the $170,000 fair value estimate. The combination of reduced leverage, institutional support, and the digital gold narrative underpins a bullish outlook for traders.