JPMorgan: Bitcoin Looks More Attractive Than Gold Long-Term; Mining Cost Near $87K
JPMorgan analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) has become relatively more attractive than gold on a risk-adjusted, long-term basis after recent market moves. The bank highlights that gold’s recent outperformance raised gold volatility while Bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold fell to a record low, narrowing the historical risk gap. JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin’s average miner production cost near $87,000, noting current spot BTC trades well below that level — a historical “soft floor” but not a guaranteed trigger for a rebound. The firm also flagged persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows (over $3bn in a recent month) that weigh on near-term sentiment, while describing recent selling pressure as milder than earlier capitulations. Limited leverage and modest forced liquidations reduce the risk of disorderly crashes. JPMorgan reiterated a theoretical market-cap parity price for Bitcoin substantially above current levels (near $266,000) but called short-term attainment unlikely. Key takeaways for traders: BTC’s risk-adjusted profile versus gold has improved (important for portfolio allocation and relative-value trades); downside risks remain from ETF outflows and miner breakevens that could force inefficient miners to exit if prices stay under cost; the large gap between spot price and JPMorgan’s long-term theoretical fair value implies continued volatility and trading opportunities in both directions.
Neutral
The news is overall neutral-to-slightly bullish for Bitcoin over the long term but contains clear near-term bearish pressures. JPMorgan’s analysis improves Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted narrative versus gold — a constructive, structural argument that can support longer-term inflows and positive relative-value positioning. That is bullish for medium-to-long horizons because it frames BTC as a more attractive store of value compared with gold on a volatility-adjusted basis and reiterates a much higher theoretical fair value. Offsetting this, tangible near-term headwinds remain: spot BTC ETF outflows (~$3bn), BTC trading below estimated miner production cost (~$87k) which could force miner capitulation if prolonged, and the bank’s view that short-term attainment of the theoretical price is unlikely. Limited leverage and modest forced liquidations reduce downside tail-risk versus prior episodes, implying lower chance of sudden cascading liquidations. For traders this means: expect continued volatility and two-way trading opportunities. Short-term setups favor caution and risk management (watch ETF flows, miner hash-rate and concentration, funding rates and liquidation levels). Medium-to-long-term traders may view this as a supportive macro/structural argument to accumulate on weakness or use options strategies to express asymmetric exposure while hedging downside. Overall price impact near-term: mixed/bearish pressure; long-term: constructive/bullish framing — net classification: neutral.