JPMorgan Values Bitcoin at $126K as Volatility Nears Gold
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argue that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to gold. Using a volatility-adjusted model, they estimate a Bitcoin fair value of $126,000—about 13% above current levels. The bank highlights that Bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has halved from 60% to a record low near 30%, now just twice that of gold.
Institutional investment is cited as the main driver. Corporate treasury purchases have exceeded 6% of Bitcoin’s supply, acting as a “Bitcoin central bank” and reducing circulating tokens. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has boosted fund assets under management (AUM) to roughly $150 billion, closing in on the $180 billion held in gold funds.
Recent corporate moves strengthen the trend. Japan’s Metaplanet joined the FTSE Japan and FTSE All-World indexes, while Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD has acquired $679 million in Bitcoin and plans up to $5 billion more. Technically, Bitcoin needs to surpass $117,570 to flip mid-term bearish sentiment, even as long-term indicators stay bullish. With lower volatility, clearer regulation and growing ETF adoption, JPMorgan says Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative is becoming reality, suggesting substantial upside ahead.
Bullish
JPMorgan’s report signals a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The sharp drop in volatility to a record low near 30% reduces trading risk and attracts further institutional investment. A fair value estimate of $126,000 implies a 13% upside, reinforcing positive sentiment. Growing spot Bitcoin ETF assets and major corporate acquisitions—such as Metaplanet’s index inclusions and Kindly MD’s $679 million purchase—underline sustained inflows. Technically, breaking above the $117,570 threshold could trigger mid-term bullish momentum, while long-term indicators remain supportive. Overall, these factors suggest both short-term trading opportunities and long-term price appreciation for Bitcoin.