JPMorgan: Bitcoin Underpriced vs Gold with $170K Fair Value
JPMorgan analysts see Bitcoin trading roughly $68,000 below its estimated fair value of $170,000, based on a gold-based risk model that assumes BTC consumes 1.8 times more risk capital than gold. With $6.2 trillion invested in gold via ETFs, bars, and coins, Bitcoin’s market cap must grow by two-thirds to reach parity. After a healthy 20% correction in October and completed futures deleveraging, volatility has eased, and BTC has stabilized above $100,000 amid rising gold volatility. JPMorgan highlights strong liquidity and rising equity risk, positioning Bitcoin as a potential hedge. Over the next 6–12 months, the bank forecasts significant upside for BTC underpinned by market cycles and supportive macro conditions.
Bullish
JPMorgan’s gold parity model signals that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, implying strong upward pressure on price as markets adjust toward the $170,000 fair value target. In the short term, the completion of a healthy 20% correction and futures deleveraging suggests reduced volatility and potential for renewed buying interest. Over the medium to long term, supportive liquidity conditions and rising gold volatility may drive allocation flows into Bitcoin as a digital hedge, reinforcing a positive market outlook. Historical patterns show that major corrections often precede substantial rallies, further supporting a bullish case for BTC.