JPMorgan Cuts Coinbase Price Target Ahead of Q4 Earnings as Trading, USDC Slow
JPMorgan lowered its December 2026 price target for Coinbase (COIN) to $290 from $399 ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings, citing weaker spot trading volumes, softer crypto prices and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances. The bank keeps an Overweight rating but projects adjusted EBITDA to fall to $734 million (from $801M in Q3). JPMorgan models spot trading volume at about $263 billion and expects transaction revenue of $1.06 billion — partly offset by a full quarter contribution from Deribit (estimated $117M). Subscription & services revenue is forecast at $670 million, below Coinbase guidance, reflecting lower staking yields and USDC headwinds. Other analysts (Barclays, Compass Point) are more cautious or bearish, citing weaker retail trading, lower blockchain rewards, and potential misses in subscription and services tied to crypto prices. Key trader takeaways: expect a sequential earnings and EBITDA decline, watch commentary on early-2026 trading activity and USDC sustainability, and assess whether derivatives (Deribit) and futures can offset spot market weakness.
Bearish
The news signals near-term downside pressure on Coinbase revenue and earnings. JPMorgan’s cut — despite an Overweight rating — projects a meaningful sequential decline in adjusted EBITDA and lower transaction and subscription revenue tied directly to spot trading volumes and USDC balances. Multiple sell-side firms also cite weaker retail engagement and blockchain rewards, suggesting consensus estimates may still be optimistic. Historically, similar analyst downgrades and volume-driven revenue misses (e.g., past crypto drawdowns) have produced short-term negative price reactions for exchange stocks and increased volatility in related tokens. Short-term impact: likely increased selling pressure on COIN and heightened sensitivity of crypto prices to Coinbase guidance and early-2026 volume commentary. Deribit and futures revenue provide diversification but probably won’t fully offset spot declines this quarter. Long-term impact: if USDC growth and trading volumes remain depressed, valuation multiple and earnings power could reset lower; conversely, sustained recovery in volumes or stablecoin use could restore upside. Traders should monitor Q4 results, management commentary on USDC and retail activity, Deribit/futures revenue traction, and on-chain volume metrics to gauge market reaction and adjust positions accordingly.