JPMorgan Warns Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale Threatens Dividend Cash Plan

JPMorgan says Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 32 BTC last week, even as management called it “symbolic and voluntary.” The key issue for traders is dividend funding: can Strategy meet preferred-stock dividends without further BTC sales? JPMorgan estimates Strategy’s USD reserves cover only about 6.3 months of preferred dividend payments. In December, the firm set aside $1.44B, but JPMorgan calculates annual dividends still total about $1.7B. Strategy holds 843,706 BTC at an average cost of $75,699, implying a large unrealized loss versus BTC trading around the low-$60,000s. The note also turns more cautious on US crypto policy and capital flows. JPMorgan links any constructive 2H for the sector to two conditions: (1) Strategy clearly explaining how it will fund roughly $1.7B yearly dividends, and (2) Congress passing the US market-structure bill, the Clarity Act. JPMorgan assigns under a 50% chance of passage this year. On fundamentals, JPMorgan’s “soft floor” for Bitcoin production cost falls from about $90k to ~$77k, before rebounding toward ~$87k. Year-to-date digital-asset inflows are about $22B. Trading takeaway: expect sentiment swings around Strategy’s dividend/reserve clarification. The short-term risk is headline-driven BTC selling pressure, but JPMorgan leaves room for a rebound if funding and regulation conditions are met.