JPMorgan Sees $1.5B First-Year Inflows for Solana Spot ETF
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou forecast that a Solana spot ETF could draw about $1.5B in net inflows during its first year—just one-seventh of what Ethereum spot ETFs attracted. The U.S. SEC is set to decide on 16 crypto spot ETF applications, including for Solana and XRP, by October 10 under a streamlined review. JPMorgan’s $1.5B estimate is rooted in the REX Osprey Solana ETF’s ~$350M inflows since July and Solana’s DeFi TVL at roughly one-seventh of Ethereum’s. Analysts warn that actual Solana spot ETF inflows may trail projections due to low investor awareness, declining on-chain activity, a high memecoin ratio and competition from crypto index and yield products. CME Solana futures volumes also lag, signaling muted demand. An earlier JPMorgan team led by Kenneth Worthington projected $2.7B–$5.2B over 6–12 months. Traders should track SEC approvals, net fund flows, CME futures volumes and key on-chain metrics to assess the Solana spot ETF’s performance relative to established Ethereum ETF offerings.
Bearish
JPMorgan’s cautious $1.5B projection—just one-seventh of Ethereum ETF inflows—combined with low investor awareness, declining on-chain activity and weak CME futures volumes, indicates muted demand for a Solana spot ETF. While SEC approval will provide a price floor, the limited scale of expected crypto inflows and competition from other products may cap upside. In the short term, traders may remain cautious awaiting actual fund flows; longer term, unless on-chain metrics and memecoin pressures improve, SOL’s price momentum is likely to be constrained.