JPMorgan Sees S&P 500 Rally on Earnings and Tariffs
JPMorgan forecasts a high single-digit rise in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, citing resilient corporate earnings, differentiated tariff impacts and bonus depreciation incentives. With over 80% of S&P 500 companies beating Q2 earnings and revenue expectations and an 11% projected earnings growth, JPMorgan S&P 500 outlook favors large-cap technology, financials and utilities. Tariff exemptions for major firms like Apple and the One Big Beautiful Act (OBBA) boost free cash flow and spur investment. The bank’s bullish stock view may extend to crypto, supported by potential ether ETF approvals and recent ETH rallies above $4,200.
Bullish
JPMorgan’s bullish S&P 500 forecast is grounded in robust earnings beats, strategic tariff exemptions and fiscal stimulus, echoing past market surges when corporate results exceeded expectations. Strong Q2 earnings and an 11% earnings growth projection tend to drive equity inflows in the short term, while bonus depreciation under OBBA can elevate long-term investment and cash flow. The differentiated impact of tariffs—benefiting large caps—mirrors similar outcomes during previous trade-policy cycles, reinforcing sector leadership in tech and financials. Crypto markets may also benefit, as ether’s rally and ETF optimism often track equity sentiment, creating a broadly bullish backdrop across asset classes.