July US Jobs Miss Spur Fed Rate-Cut Bets, Bitcoin Dips
The July US jobs report showed only 73,000 payroll gains, missing the 110,000 forecast and triggering downward revisions of 258,000 jobs from May and June. The US jobs report also pushed the unemployment rate to 4.2%, signaling labor market cooling.
Private payrolls rose by 83,000, while government jobs fell by 10,000. Healthcare and retail led gains; manufacturing and administrative roles declined. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, with the workweek extending to 34.3 hours.
Equities and Treasury yields slid as the report fueled a jump in September Fed rate-cut odds to 67%, per CME FedWatch. Bitcoin slipped below its 50-period EMA at $117,560, trading around $115,343. Immediate support lies near $114,000, with resistance at $117,500. Traders now await further economic data and Fed guidance.
Bullish
The weaker-than-expected US jobs report has raised the probability of a September Fed rate cut to 67%, lowering Treasury yields and boosting liquidity. Historically, dovish monetary signals have supported risk assets like Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin dipped below its 50-period EMA upon release, easier policy expectations typically foster medium-term rallies. In the short term, heightened volatility may persist as traders adjust to new data, but longer-term, potential rate cuts should underpin Bitcoin’s upside potential.