Kalshi backs AFM as Congress probes insider-trading controls

Kalshi has backed a new prediction markets advocacy group, Americans for Fair Markets (AFM), as US regulators and lawmakers step up pressure. AFM will lobby for clear federal prediction markets rules and consumer protections, highlighting KYC checks, bans on insider trading, full CFTC funding, and limits on contracts tied to war, death, terrorism, and assassination. AFM launched with Taylor Budowich, a former deputy White House chief of staff, as strategic advisor. Kalshi’s government relations chief John Bivona joined AFM’s board. Kalshi says gaming interests are trying to dominate the policy debate. The timing is sensitive for prediction markets: the US House Committee on Oversight opened an investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, requesting records on user checks, geographic restrictions, and suspicious-trading control systems. The probe follows concerns that users could profit using non-public government information. Meanwhile, regulators remain divided over whether event contracts fall under the CFTC derivatives framework or state gambling rules, and court rulings have not automatically moved state cases to federal court. For crypto traders watching on-chain/crypto-adjacent prediction narratives, near-term volatility is likely around regulatory headlines. Longer-term direction depends on whether clearer CFTC-led oversight reduces compliance uncertainty for prediction markets.